The reason you don't get a straight answer is the same reason no meterologist can tell you what the weather is going to be a year from you. It's because there are things happening all the time that affect everything else that is happening. Doesn't mean that meterology is a load of junk.
For instance, if a car is racing around a race track at a certain speed, and if one knows the distance that the car has to travel, one can work out when it comes to a certain point. What one cannot work out is the unexpected that happens - the sudden horse galloping across the track, another car driving into it, a hail storm that appears out of nowhere.
You asked if I think that major storms are increasing over the past 10 years. I have no doubt of it.
QUOTE: Analysis of satellite records from 1979 to 2017 found a clear rise in the most destructive cyclones – also known as hurricanes or typhoons – that deliver sustained winds in excess of about 185km/h.Dr Hamish Ramsay, a senior research scientist at CSIRO who studies cyclones, said: “This study confirms what the climate models have been predicting for some time – that the proportion of the most intense storms will increase as the climate warms.
https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/
The IPCC AR5 presents a strong body of scientific evidence that most of the global warming observed over the past half century is very likely due to human-caused greenhouse gas emissions.
Based on our published results and as well as those of other modeling groups, we conclude that at the global scale: a future increase in tropical cyclone precipitation rates is likely; an increase in tropical cyclone intensity is likely; an increase in very intense (category 4 and 5) tropical cyclones is more likely than not; and there is medium confidence in a decrease in the frequency of weaker tropical cyclones.
https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/
Jack, we are never going to agree on anything. I've heard the things you have to say repeated by American conservatives a million times during the past 12 years. Not interested in discussing it sorry. I'm moving to Germany shortly, and I have other things to do. Cheers.
