I thought Disney bought 538 and Nate Silver took his methodology with him. Disney put in a different method.

On the day that the DNC nominated Hillary, I annouced Trump would win. I think there is a good chance that Trump will win again.

Why?

1. Harrris is not liked, and she comes accross as a complete nitwit.
2. Most of social media is based in San Francisco. It is very woke and it shuts down any speech that it dislikes, calling it hate speech. 97% of journalists are liberal and this is reflected in the opinion pieces and the slant in the way news items are presented. Effectively debate is shut down and people won't say what they really think.
3. I move in liiberal circles. I have liberal readers. I have had too many say that they will vote for Trump - essentially because they don't agree with various perspectives. I know what they mean, because I feel the same way. Of course, because of Medium rules, I cannot write about it...

So, I am not American, and I no longer livve in the States. If I was, I wouldn't be voting for Harris, so I would abstain.

It's going to be interesting.